The report below gives a good overview of the Fall 2026 M&A activity in the Consumer Retail Industry Sector. U.S. consumer spending remained resilient during July-September 2026, although headline growth overstated the strength of underlying demand. Census Bureau estimates show retail and food services sales increased 5.5% from the same quarter a year earlier and 1.2% from April-June. September sales reached $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% year over year. These figures reflect dollar spending and do not adjust for inflation. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline stations, September sales rose only 0.2% from August, indicating a more modest increase across the rest of the market. Consumers continued to prioritize affordability and spread purchases across the season. NRF's July back-to-school survey found that 62% of shoppers had already begun buying, while 46% of those with less than half their shopping complete were waiting for better deals. This behavior gave retailers an extended selling window but reinforced the importance of promotions and price discipline. Supply planning also remained sensitive to trade policy. In July, NRF and Hackett Associates forecast an early import peak as retailers brought inventory forward ahead of potential August tariff increases. That forecast reflected purchasing decisions made under uncertainty rather than a confirmed increase in final consumer demand. In the United Kingdom, Barclays reported consumer card spending growth of 2.0% in July and 2.1% in August. August's increase remained below the latest 3.1% CPIH inflation rate, pointing to continued pressure on purchasing power. Across these markets, the quarter combined continued spending with a strong focus on value, leaving retailers to balance sales growth against inventory exposure and household budget constraints.
Posted by Joseph P. Sands.